Peyton Manning isn’t Human – and the Numbers Prove it

I’ll admit I’ve been bitten hard by the sports wagering bug – check that, more like Archanid – this NFL season but it’s given me a lot to think about and even better: a constant flow of ideas for blog posts.

One trend that has has been killing the books recently is the over hitting on every single Denver Bronco game this year.  That’s 8 games in a row.

Even with Week 4’s Eagles-Broncos game at over/under 58.5 points – the highest over/under in 9 years – sharp bettors believed that the linesmakers were putting out a number that was too low.  Some even say that up to a touchdown (7 points) worth of value is being left off the figure week-in week-out as the books cannot in their right minds put out a total of 65+ points.

Peyton had a game face when he was 8 years old

Look at Week 5’s Broncos-Cowboys matchup, the 4th highest point total in NFL history at just shy of 100 points.  Even with the historical steady increase of offensive production within pro football (made possible by the shift from run-based offense to passing-based offense) these are astronomical numbers.

The over bet in Bronco’s games provides a particularly dangerous situations for sportsbooks: when the public and the sharps are on the same side.  This basically means the betting is extremely lopsided.  If the bet pays off the books are hit with a huge loss, which has been a regular occurrence for the better part of the 2013 NFL season.

Joe Public’s good fortune wagering profitably on Peyton Manning to put up big numbers serves to validate The Sheriff’s other-worldly ability to score points.  The Bronco’s offensive numbers defy logic.

To put it in laymen’s terms: Peyton Manning’s combination of football smarts and ability are so incredible that even the world’s foremost experts on the game can’t completely understand how good he really is.  It sounds a little wacky and far-fetched but the numbers rarely deceive.  Oddsmakers are extremely good at their craft and rarely run into situations in which they cannot profit from the intellectual advantage they hold over the average football fan.

I doubt Peyton cares if the average sports bettor wins or loses on Sundays but he has single-handedly carried the masses of squares to gambling nirvana.  Usually Las Vegas profits heavily from the public’s love of superstars like Peyton Manning but in this case it’s working against them.  Peyton Manning is not a superstar, he is a superhero.  Watch ESPN Film’s The Book of Manning and you’ll get a small glimpse into how it was his destiny to be an elite NFL quarterback.

A Tale of Two Wideouts: Braylon Edwards and Eric Decker

TMZ recently released a video of former NFL WR Braylon Edwards getting in trouble with the law, yet again.  Although the video is of low quality, you can obviously see Edwards totally cheap shot the guy.  This is too easy a set-up for a bad football joke but I gotta play tee-ball here.

“Personal foul on the offense, number 17.  Penalty is unyielding internet ridicule, subjection to memes and possible violation of current probation for punching Lebron James’ friend in the face.”

This dude in 2007 had 1200+ receiving yards and 16 TD’s.  For those of you who don’t play fantasy football (what the hell is wrong with you if you don’t) that is the equivalent of bespoke John Lobbs, grade A5 wagyu beef, beluga caviar  (sorry for the food references but I’m on a diet).  Now he’s on Twitter having to explain why he grabbed a guy the size of Kevin Hart by the ankles……

Like most average people I’ve always wanted to be famous, but maybe it’s not as great as it seems.  If you watch the video of the guy who is filing suit against Braylon Edwards, he totally fits the profile of a money-grubber.  Not trying to profile the guy or anything but honestly, I cannot understand half of the things he says, can you?

I guess some people are born to live in the spotlight, others on TMZ.

“He catches the ball, I think that’s what a wide receiver does.”

Segway to different article I found on TMZ about a currently employed NFL WR who seems it have it all going well for him: Eric Decker.  The Bronco’s receiver is currently enjoying great success with new co-worker Peyton Manning and is happily married to hot country singer Jessie James and they are currently expecting their first child.

The video is a very intellectual, deep discussion about who is hotter: Decker, Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski.  To save you the suspense, Tom Terrific retained his title by a slim margin over Decker.  Look at the face the chick makes when she first says Deckers name.  It’s like you can tell she’s having some kind of kinky ass fantasy inside her head about covering the former Minnesota graduate in whipped cream, ala Varsity Blues.  But the highlight of the clip is when she says [referring to Eric Decker] ‘You’ve probably never heard of him, because I never have.”  Not to doubt Eric Decker’s #1 fan here, but she’ll lose credibility a few moments later when feigns supreme football knowledge by coming out with “he catches the ball, I think that’s what a wide receiver does.”

Today’s life lessons:

1. Never talk about a subject you don’t know much about in front of your peers

2. Don’t cheap shot a guy who speaks a dialect of English you’ve never heard before

NFL Week 4 – 49ers @ Rams: Betting Analysis

2013 NFC West Divisional Matchup sees 49ers as 3 point ROAD favorites vs the St. Louis Rams ON Week 4 THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Kickoff: 8:25PM ET

Where: Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis MO

Forecast: 72°F (dome)

Spread: SF -3.0

TV: NFL Network

Week 4 of the 2013 NFL Season will kickoff with a divisional game between the underachieving 49ers and reeling St. Louis Rams.  Both teams are coming off lopsided losses and are in dire need of a win.

The point spread opened at SF -3.5 and was quickly bet down to -3.0.  Since then it has held steady at around -3 points with the 49ers coming in as road chalk.  As expected the public has bet heavily on last year’s NFC champs with about 75% of total money coming in on San Francisco.

“We hate the Niners still,” Dickerson said. “That hasn’t changed.”

Aldon Smith liked to get cross-faded

The 49ers have a laundry list of injuries.  Two key players on both sides of the ball for San Francisco are questionable as of Thursday morning: LB Patrick Willis and TE Vernon Davis.  If you’ve been living in a cave for the past week, Aldon Smith is also a no-go: the star LB is indefinitely out after being arrested on suspicion of DUI and possession of marijuana.

St. Louis is healthier but looked horrendous last week vs. Dallas – Sam Bradford was sacked over 5 times.

Colin Kaepernick has experienced the much touted ‘sophmore blues’ in his 2nd season.  Experts are attributing his regression to 49ers Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman taking a different play-calling approach this year.

Bettors are usually wary of putting money down on primetime NFL matchups and especially one that has a line that looks to be particularly spot-on.

Joe Duffy of Offshoreinsiders.com is advising to take St. Louis and the points.  With a winning record so far this year, I’m tailing him.

RAMS +3.0

Why I Envy Tom Brady

He’s got Giselle, three Super Bowl rings, two Super Bowl MVPs and has been voted the league’s MVP twice.  But none of these make me jealous – directly, at least.

I envy Tom Brady because he is the epitome of how a great man should behave in pressure situations.  When I see him barking out audibles, standing tall in the pocket and encouraging his teammates, I wish I could do the same.

He’s getting paid millions to hurt you

As someone who has played QB, (well, at least in garbage time) I can tell you there are few things scarier in this world than a fierce pass rush, especially a blitz.  How many people could actually say that they wouldn’t be afraid of having Cameron Wake or DeMarcus Ware wanting to smash them into a turf pancake?

“Every quarterback can throw a ball; every running back can run; every receiver is fast; but that mental toughness that you talk about translates into competitiveness.” – Tom Brady

His GQ covershoots, Victoria Secret underwear model bed-buddy and NFL accomplishments are all just by-products of his character.

First you get the Super Bowl MVPs, then you get on magazine cover with dog

The man is a winner….and I believe that at the root of all that, akin to most successful individuals is that he faces his fears rather than run from them.

Why Men Love Watching Sports

Pass me the Cheetos, bro

Ever since the early ages of man, we have enjoyed watching competition amongst the most powerful individuals of our species.  There’s a reason the ol’ Coliseum was rocking back in the day.

There are so many different ways to entertain ourselves in the modern era, yet one form of entertainment continues to bring joy to men and unyielding frustration and apathy to women: sports.

It’s like why a fight or impending possibility of a fight draws such a large crowd no matter where you go: it strikes some kind of primal chord deep down in inside and gets the adrenaline pumping.  You can almost picture a bunch of monkeys jumping up and down and screaming.

We’ve come a long way from hunting woolly mammoths and understanding why square wheels sucked, but homo sapiens – animals – still we are.

SuperCam

I think about the rushing touchdown Cam Newton scored last week against the Giants.  As per usual he did his trademark ‘Superman ripping open his shirt’ celebration.  And you could see him through his helmet let out a yell, a primal scream of domination and aggression.

 This dude knew he was kicking ass and he felt good about it.

I thought quietly to myself that must be the best feeling in the world.  It’s within these games that we find the purest examples of why the human race has progressed to where it is today.  We are fighters, survivors.  Even against the most difficult odds we persevere.

Women see a bunch of barbarians running into each other senselessly – men see the past and possible future success of their entire species.

So next time your wife or girlfriend yells at you for watching football the entire weekend, tell her to read my blog.

Why Koreans love Kimchi

Staple of every Korean meal – credit benghan.com/wikipedia.com

There’s a reason Koreans have a separate fridge just for their kimchi: It’s serious business (and it will totally stink up your regular fridge).  One of my older cousin’s told me flat out:

“If there’s no kimchi on the table, I’m not eating.”

When I was younger, I never ate kimchi.  Actually, as a very picky little kid I hated anything that I could recognize as a vegetable.  Now that I’m a bit older and my palate is able to discern tastes other than McDonald’s and instant noodles, I really enjoy eating pickled radishes – and I think I get why the entire peninsula does too.

Plastic surgery not included

If you’ve ever squeezed a lemon over something to enhance its taste, you’ve used the power of acidity to stimulate your tastebuds.  Kimchi goes through a long process of fermentation which gives it an acidic property.  It works almost as a palate cleanser between bites of different types food – perfect for a traditional Korean-style meal which involves many small dishes called banchan.

It’s like the way ginger is eaten between different types of raw fish at a sushi restaurant – you want a neutral palate so you can get the full flavor of your next order of sashimi or nigiri without any overlap from your last order (and if you’re paying $10 for two pieces of fish, trust me you want to get your money’s worth).

So next time you have the chance to go to a Korean restaurant with some friends, avoid rushing in for the pork belly or galbi and try some pickled radish first, I guarantee you’ll have a better meal – and you will gain immense respect from any Koreans who may be eating with you.  On a side note, your breath will be kicking so avoid kissing your girlfriend immediately after dinner.  

buying new vs used

#85’s Bugatti economics…..child please

If money were no object we’d all buy new things.  New things are shiny, don’t have suspicious looking stains on them and generally offer the buyer the peace of mind that comes with something that has yet to be used.  It’s also hard to estimate the value that comes with owning something that has never called another human ‘master.’

Manning’s base salary is $15,000,000 this season….about $1m per game

Reality check: we are all not franchise NFL quarterbacks, oil tycoons or chaebol (Korean word for conglomerate families who own companies like Samsung, LG, etc.).  So there are things we just can’t afford unless they’re used.

I know that many people are turned off to buying used things.  My mom is TERRIFIED of buying anything that is not new.  And I can understand that.  She works hard and earns an income that allows her to buy most of things she wants new.  I, on the other hand, am a college student and covet many new shiny things that I can’t possibly afford to buy new.  So how do we get the things we want at a reasonable price without getting burned?

Canon Mark iii 5D DSLR camera

Like most financially related matters in life, its all about risk vs reward.  Yes, you can get that DSLR camera you wanted for half of the retail price, but it might not be under warranty.  The previous owner may lie about its condition.  There are many bad scenarios risk-averse individuals may envision when contemplating a used purchase.  The key is to minimize our risk by gaining as much information as possible before buying.

Let’s imagine two scenarios at opposite ends of the spectrum when trying to buy again let’s say a used DSLR camera.

Psst…hey….you want a gently pre-owned Canon Mark iii 5D?

Scenario A: Random guy at the gas station comes up to and asks if you want to buy a camera.  It’s the model you want and he’s offering it for about 30% of the MSRP.

Scenario B: You look on eBay for the camera you want used, find a reputable seller with good feedback who provides lots of information and photos.  He/she takes time to answer all your questions.  You use PayPal to pay for the transaction.   The seller wants about 70% of the MSRP.

If you go with Scenario B, you end up paying more but there is much less risk involved.  On the flipside Scenario B it seems like a killer deal but the odds that the shady dude at the gas station is doing legit business – probably nil.

Summary: You may not have the money to buy the things you want new, but if you have the time and patience to do your homework, you can own those awesome consumer products you want at a fraction of their retail price with very little risk that they will be faulty or problematic.