Sports, Sports Betting

Peyton Manning isn’t Human – and the Numbers Prove it

Peyton Manning looks for an open receiver

I’ll admit I’ve been bitten hard by the sports wagering bug – check that, more like Archanid – this NFL season but it’s given me a lot to think about and even better: a constant flow of ideas for blog posts.

One trend that has has been killing the books recently is the over hitting on every single Denver Bronco game this year.  That’s 8 games in a row.

Even with Week 4’s Eagles-Broncos game at over/under 58.5 points – the highest over/under in 9 years – sharp bettors believed that the linesmakers were putting out a number that was too low.  Some even say that up to a touchdown (7 points) worth of value is being left off the figure week-in week-out as the books cannot in their right minds put out a total of 65+ points.


Peyton had a game face when he was 8 years old

Look at Week 5’s Broncos-Cowboys matchup, the 4th highest point total in NFL history at just shy of 100 points.  Even with the historical steady increase of offensive production within pro football (made possible by the shift from run-based offense to passing-based offense) these are astronomical numbers.

The over bet in Bronco’s games provides a particularly dangerous situations for sportsbooks: when the public and the sharps are on the same side.  This basically means the betting is extremely lopsided.  If the bet pays off the books are hit with a huge loss, which has been a regular occurrence for the better part of the 2013 NFL season.

Joe Public’s good fortune wagering profitably on Peyton Manning to put up big numbers serves to validate The Sheriff’s other-worldly ability to score points.  The Bronco’s offensive numbers defy logic.

To put it in laymen’s terms: Peyton Manning’s combination of football smarts and ability are so incredible that even the world’s foremost experts on the game can’t completely understand how good he really is.  It sounds a little wacky and far-fetched but the numbers rarely deceive.  Oddsmakers are extremely good at their craft and rarely run into situations in which they cannot profit from the intellectual advantage they hold over the average football fan.

I doubt Peyton cares if the average sports bettor wins or loses on Sundays but he has single-handedly carried the masses of squares to gambling nirvana.  Usually Las Vegas profits heavily from the public’s love of superstars like Peyton Manning but in this case it’s working against them.  Peyton Manning is not a superstar, he is a superhero.  Watch ESPN Film’s The Book of Manning and you’ll get a small glimpse into how it was his destiny to be an elite NFL quarterback.

Sports Betting

NFL Week 4 – 49ers @ Rams: Betting Analysis

St. Louis Rams QB Sam Bradford passing against Atlanta Falcons defense

2013 NFC West Divisional Matchup sees 49ers as 3 point ROAD favorites vs the St. Louis Rams ON Week 4 THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Kickoff: 8:25PM ET

Where: Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis MO

Forecast: 72°F (dome)

Spread: SF -3.0

TV: NFL Network

Week 4 of the 2013 NFL Season will kickoff with a divisional game between the underachieving 49ers and reeling St. Louis Rams.  Both teams are coming off lopsided losses and are in dire need of a win.

The point spread opened at SF -3.5 and was quickly bet down to -3.0.  Since then it has held steady at around -3 points with the 49ers coming in as road chalk.  As expected the public has bet heavily on last year’s NFC champs with about 75% of total money coming in on San Francisco.

“We hate the Niners still,” Dickerson said. “That hasn’t changed.”

49ers linebacker Aldon Smith

Aldon Smith liked to get cross-faded

The 49ers have a laundry list of injuries.  Two key players on both sides of the ball for San Francisco are questionable as of Thursday morning: LB Patrick Willis and TE Vernon Davis.  If you’ve been living in a cave for the past week, Aldon Smith is also a no-go: the star LB is indefinitely out after being arrested on suspicion of DUI and possession of marijuana.

St. Louis is healthier but looked horrendous last week vs. Dallas – Sam Bradford was sacked over 5 times.

Colin Kaepernick has experienced the much touted ‘sophmore blues’ in his 2nd season.  Experts are attributing his regression to 49ers Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman taking a different play-calling approach this year.

Bettors are usually wary of putting money down on primetime NFL matchups and especially one that has a line that looks to be particularly spot-on.

Joe Duffy of is advising to take St. Louis and the points.  With a winning record so far this year, I’m tailing him.

RAMS +3.0