Sports, Sports Betting

Peyton Manning isn’t Human – and the Numbers Prove it

Peyton Manning looks for an open receiver

I’ll admit I’ve been bitten hard by the sports wagering bug – check that, more like Archanid – this NFL season but it’s given me a lot to think about and even better: a constant flow of ideas for blog posts.

One trend that has has been killing the books recently is the over hitting on every single Denver Bronco game this year.  That’s 8 games in a row.

Even with Week 4’s Eagles-Broncos game at over/under 58.5 points – the highest over/under in 9 years – sharp bettors believed that the linesmakers were putting out a number that was too low.  Some even say that up to a touchdown (7 points) worth of value is being left off the figure week-in week-out as the books cannot in their right minds put out a total of 65+ points.


Peyton had a game face when he was 8 years old

Look at Week 5’s Broncos-Cowboys matchup, the 4th highest point total in NFL history at just shy of 100 points.  Even with the historical steady increase of offensive production within pro football (made possible by the shift from run-based offense to passing-based offense) these are astronomical numbers.

The over bet in Bronco’s games provides a particularly dangerous situations for sportsbooks: when the public and the sharps are on the same side.  This basically means the betting is extremely lopsided.  If the bet pays off the books are hit with a huge loss, which has been a regular occurrence for the better part of the 2013 NFL season.

Joe Public’s good fortune wagering profitably on Peyton Manning to put up big numbers serves to validate The Sheriff’s other-worldly ability to score points.  The Bronco’s offensive numbers defy logic.

To put it in laymen’s terms: Peyton Manning’s combination of football smarts and ability are so incredible that even the world’s foremost experts on the game can’t completely understand how good he really is.  It sounds a little wacky and far-fetched but the numbers rarely deceive.  Oddsmakers are extremely good at their craft and rarely run into situations in which they cannot profit from the intellectual advantage they hold over the average football fan.

I doubt Peyton cares if the average sports bettor wins or loses on Sundays but he has single-handedly carried the masses of squares to gambling nirvana.  Usually Las Vegas profits heavily from the public’s love of superstars like Peyton Manning but in this case it’s working against them.  Peyton Manning is not a superstar, he is a superhero.  Watch ESPN Film’s The Book of Manning and you’ll get a small glimpse into how it was his destiny to be an elite NFL quarterback.


A Tale of Two Wideouts: Braylon Edwards and Eric Decker

braylon-edwards-new-york-jetsTMZ recently released a video of former NFL WR Braylon Edwards getting in trouble with the law, yet again.  Although the video is of low quality, you can obviously see Edwards totally cheap shot the guy.  This is too easy a set-up for a bad football joke but I gotta play tee-ball here.

“Personal foul on the offense, number 17.  Penalty is unyielding internet ridicule, subjection to memes and possible violation of current probation for punching Lebron James’ friend in the face.”

This dude in 2007 had 1200+ receiving yards and 16 TD’s.  For those of you who don’t play fantasy football (what the hell is wrong with you if you don’t) that is the equivalent of bespoke John Lobbs, grade A5 wagyu beef, beluga caviar  (sorry for the food references but I’m on a diet).  wagyu beef grade 5Now he’s on Twitter having to explain why he grabbed a guy the size of Kevin Hart by the ankles……

Like most average people I’ve always wanted to be famous, but maybe it’s not as great as it seems.  If you watch the video of the guy who is filing suit against Braylon Edwards, he totally fits the profile of a money-grubber.  Not trying to profile the guy or anything but honestly, I cannot understand half of the things he says, can you?

I guess some people are born to live in the spotlight, others on TMZ.

“He catches the ball, I think that’s what a wide receiver does.”

Eric Decker gaining some yards after the catch

Segway to different article I found on TMZ about a currently employed NFL WR who seems it have it all going well for him: Eric Decker.  The Bronco’s receiver is currently enjoying great success with new co-worker Peyton Manning and is happily married to hot country singer Jessie James and they are currently expecting their first child.

The video is a very intellectual, deep discussion about who is hotter: Decker, Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski.  To save you the suspense, Tom Terrific retained his title by a slim margin over Decker.  Look at the face the chick makes when she first says Deckers name. jessie-james It’s like you can tell she’s having some kind of kinky ass fantasy inside her head about covering the former Minnesota graduate in whipped cream, ala Varsity Blues.  But the highlight of the clip is when she says [referring to Eric Decker] ‘You’ve probably never heard of him, because I never have.”  Not to doubt Eric Decker’s #1 fan here, but she’ll lose credibility a few moments later when feigns supreme football knowledge by coming out with “he catches the ball, I think that’s what a wide receiver does.”

Today’s life lessons:

1. Never talk about a subject you don’t know much about in front of your peers

2. Don’t cheap shot a guy who speaks a dialect of English you’ve never heard before